Sunday, July 22, 2007

Could it be?

While by no means ready to abandon my previous position of a 9/11 conspiracy having a low probability of having originated with the Bush Administration, this article makes a compelling case for further investigation and review of the entire event.

Friday, July 20, 2007

Driving a stake in the heart of Conspiracy Theories

What makes conspiracy theories so tiresome is that they lead nowhere. While their construction may provide great pleasure to their authors, even in the unlikely event that they are accurate, because the alleged perpetrators are always presented as the mysterious ,”They,” there is no one to indict, take to trial, and convict.

In the seventy years since the “saucer” crashed in the New Mexico Desert, the little grey guys have yet to make a public appearance (except at costume parties and in motion pictures), so it seems safe to say that whether they exist or not has little consequence for most earthlings.

Think back to the JFK assassination. CIA? Mafia? Or maybe it was LBJ. (One report asserted he was seen chuckling over the Kennedy coffin as it was carried on Air Force One!) Among the most inspected historical events, none of the named suspects (and there were a lot of them) besides Oswald was ever convicted. There was, of course, prosecuting attorney Jim Garrison who took Clay Shaw, a shadowy underworld figure to trial in 1967. Charged with Conspiracy to kill the President, the Not Guilty verdict put an end to this effort, and incidentally to Garrison’s career.

Now we come to all of the extant theories, directed at explaining the 9/11 attack. There are enough holes here by which can be flown a hijacked jet. The first, if not the biggest hole, is the simple question of gain resulting from scenarios different from the official explanation. Suppose the twin towers were subject to the two plane crashes, but never collapsed. Would any of the national policies adopted by the Bush Administration have been different? All who were above the floors impacted by the plane would have died whether the buildings collapsed or not. Between impact and collapse, many in the floors below, escaped. Certainly more died from the collapses, but the marginal value of increased casualties, real, economic, and psychological is certainly elusive.

To posit that the Pentagon was impacted by something (missile, a different plane) other than Flight 77, seems even sillier. Whatever hit the building, the hole was there. More importantly, if it was not caused by Flight 77, where did the plane, crew and passengers go? The Bermuda Triangle, perhaps?

For every question conspiracy theories appear to an answer, more are instantly generated. If your inclination is to construct such explanations, no matter what the nature of the event you are trying to explain, there is a gauntlet of questions you must run before you can expect to gain credibility:

Keeping the Secret

When you are planning an event that is going to go down in the history books, it takes, you don’t accomplish it with two or three others; in an event as complex as seen with 9/11, a large number of individuals would have to know of, agree to, and participate in the preparation of the attacks. Moreover, there had to be coordination of timing of the events with the 19 terrorists. Enlisting training and coordinating the efforts of this diverse group of individuals, while keeping the whole thing a secret, boggles the mind considering the numbers, and the complexity of the tasks and the skill required of the conspiracy leaders.

The biggest question of all is simply this: With the large number of people required to successfully implement this conspiracy, how is it that not a single person has talked in the six years that has elapsed since the event?

Explosives Needed

Along with tens of people who assisted in the 9/11 attacks, there was a non-trivial collection of explosives needed, along with whatever weapon is alleged to have made the large hole in the Pentagon wall. Whatever that was, it had to be acquired from somewhere. Unless you want to assume that all forensic investigators from the FBI and the ATF are either a part of the plot, or painfully incompetent, evidence of explosive residue would have been found in the weeks and months following the attack. Nothing could possibly have better rescued the forever damaged reputation of the bungling FBI, than being able to announce that there were identifiable domestic participants in this terrible act.

Risk/Benefit

Whoever the mysterious leaders of this horrendous conspiracy, they had to have seen enormous value in adding to the destruction they already knew was coming. That value had to greatly outweigh the almost inexorable odds of getting caught. If you are going to spin the conspiracy story, you must, more than anything else, have to account for this difference in value and you must present a scenario by which the conspirators could have confidence that they would go undetected.

The Need for Alternative Explanations

Among all the issues related to the development of conspiracy theories, this one is for me, the most puzzling. Perhaps only the Kennedy assassination has received the attention of so many law enforcement agencies, and authors. Yes, there are always going to be some details which will escape total consistency, and will remain unanswered. The physical world in which we live contains uncertainties, anomalies, and unexplainable events. “Beyond a reasonable doubt,” means just that. There is always a possibility that the convicted criminal is in fact, not guilty. The stuff of which conspiracy theory is composed is a grey, foggy area of the just possible doubt. It is that tiny sliver of possibility between reasonable doubt and absolute certainty.

That sliver of the “just possible,” is simply not enough to propel us from proposal to action. No prosecutor has convened a Grand Jury to investigate these claims; there are no congressional investigations or hearings to give life to these fantasies. All that can be accomplished is to raise the anxiety level of the uninformed, and titillate the fantasies of the like-minded.

The only result from the publication of these fantasies is, frankly, negative. Our country is populated by a significant percentage of those who are at best, ignorant and gullible, and at worst, paranoid, in their readiness to accept some very bizarre and incredible explanations for events. When three Republican candidates for President express their outright disbelief in evolution, you know you are in trouble. The number of Americans who are convinced they have been subjects of alien abductions can be nothing less than frightening. How many individuals have had their identities stolen, directly resulting from the most rudimentary carelessness while online?

Dating back years before the availability of the Net, there still remains, in our culture, the apparently unshakeable belief that if something is in print, it has to be true. While reading of books has become a lost art, this same readiness to believe has transferred itself to the blogosphere. In a time when students and adults alike have great difficulty in discriminating between sense and nonsense, you do them no favor in publishing fantasy as truth.

Sunday, July 15, 2007

What's wrong with American Education?

Along with the Iraq war, dealing with immigration, and health care, the poor performance of the institution of American Education is among the most severe of the problems seen facing the nation. Yet, depending on the source, the definition of our unease varies widely.

The definition of Educations failure comes in many forms, largely based on the source from which it originates. The victims (students) of course, have their own definition school is boring, useless, with its only value one of meeting friends and, for some, participating in sports. Try asking a kid what he learned in school today, and you will get the thousand mile stare, which quickly informs you of your membership in the group of those, intellectually challenged.

Parents have many complaints. If children are in their teens or older, they have changed from the compliant, respectful children so fondly remembered, to defiant, lying, empty-headed, drug-using, promiscuous brats. (Think Beaver Cleaver morphing into Damien). They are certain that it results from their kids heads being filled with all kinds of ideas that have no place in a traditional American home. Worse yet, if the parents are financially supporting a $25,000 a year college tuition to get these results.

Teachers look at their unmotivated, cheating, noisy classes, with occasional deadly violence thrown in, and either leave the profession, or stay, longing for the days when students were eager to learn, respectful, did their homework, and trembled at the threat of a parent conference or a failing grade.

Employers come closest to describing the problem as they bemoan the inability of employees to perform their jobs, their lack of productivity, motivation, and perhaps most of all, honesty and integrity. Remedial and on-the-job training have become the norm rather than the exception in the private sector. There no longer exists a ready pool of exceptional candidates for positions requiring knowledge, skill, and judgment, even with many more graduates coming from the colleges and universities. Instead, employers seek an increasingly immigration-restricted pool of foreign technical and scientific workers. In Government, from the President of the United States all the way down to the lowliest DMV clerk, raging and complete incompetence is the rule of the day. None of them can get it right, even when they try, and most of the time theyre not even making the effort.

If all of the above is true, how have we made the enormous leaps in technology, science, medicine, and consumer electronics during the last half century? The answer, it seems to me, is that this progress has resulted in spite of, rather than because of the institution of Education in this country. From the rebellious drive that fostered the Revolution through the tenaciousness of the 19th century inventors, to the non-conforming brilliance of Einstein and the purposeful drive of the thousands of university academics and their graduate students, we still maintain a hugely rich source of intellectual power. Yet, we no longer stand alone as the worlds leader in brain power.

Billions of dollars, a giant bureaucracy (the Department of Education), new Internet instructional tools, and thousands of people have been thrown at the challenge, with no evident reversal of this problem. All of the statements above represent different perceptions of the results of educational failure, but fail to make clear what is and has been missing. Thus, it seems appropriate to attempt a specific description of those elements of the educational process which have proved to be so intractable to any and all efforts to remedy them.

If we look at the research, and engage in honest discussion with the participants (educators and students) the missing or distorted pieces of the puzzle are really not that difficult to isolate. They come down to three specific failures: Neurobiology, Mission Ambiguity, and Untaught Skills. The origin of these failures and how to fix them are well beyond the scope of this article; the dialog which must first be opened is to secure agreement about just what needs to be fixed.

Knowledge of Neurobiology:

Some things about the development of a growing brain are very evident. You don't expect a seventh grade student to handle the concepts of calculus. You don't need formal training in neuroscience to understand that this particular brain is just not ready to deal with such complex ideas.

Yet, parents and teachers are puzzled and concerned at the emotionally driven behavior demonstrated by high school students. Promiscuous sexual behavior, emotional outbursts, drug and alcohol use, and dangerous driving all come from the same cause.

That part of the brain responsible for careful judgment has far less power than does the amygdala, the center of the brain driving emotional impulse and behavior. Having peers around makes the situation even worse. Still, with all the research already assembled, many adults fail to accept that this is a part of the adolescents storm which must be weathered. Nonethelesas, adults interacting with this kid tend to react with anger, and mete out punishment, rather than providing responses appropriate to helping him gain control over his problem.

Mission Ambiguity

Ask any high-school student to name something he considers important, that he has learned today, this semester, or for that matter, during his school career to date. The chances are pretty good that he is going to have a difficult time providing a credible answer. Have friends who teach? Ask this: Suppose the classes you teach were removed from your schools class offerings. What would students taking these classes have lost? If everyone is being honest, any answer other than conformity to social expectations is going to be hard to find.

Students spend their lives in public schoosl, (and a good chunk of their undergraduate education) wondering just why they are there. For many, it is like learning a role for a play. You play your part, are rewarded with good grades, but when the curtain comes down (graduation), what are you left with? It seems to me that this ambiguity, this undefined sense of purpose and value, explains a good deal of the failure of the institution to impart genuine learning. Without a perception of real value, motivation directed at making use of what is offered simply is not going to be there.

Untaught Skills

American children spend something in excess of 20,000 hours attending school from the time they enter elementary education until they graduate some 12 years later. Yet, while repeatedly tested, it is really somewhat of a mystery what learning actually occurs. And there is a great deal of research that suggests that approximately 80% of everything taught in public education consists of rote memorization. Another 10 to 15% of learning is devoted to "problem-solving." This is stuff like solving an algebra problem, programming your computer, or building a birdhouse. Students, in essence, learn rules to achieve certain desired results.

When you ask those who are critical of education what it is that students lack, you will repeatedly hear the phrase, "critical thinking skills." Indeed, those are the skills moat students never are taught. In 1957, an educational psychologist, Benjamin Bloom, forever changed our understanding of the possibilities for structuring learning in our schools. He developed what has come to be known as a Taxonomy of Educational Objectives. This taxonomy (classification system) categorized all learning, using a set of descriptive action verbs, making it possible to objectively measure whether desired new behavior was or was not acquired by the learner.

Three categories of behavior, to which less than 10% of the instructional effort is devoted, comprise this sought after domain we call critical thinking. Using some of the definitions and examples as applied to employment settings, it is expected that most readers will agree that these tasks are both essential, but seldom, if ever a part of the public school curriculum.

Analysis: Separates material or concepts into component parts so that its organizational structure may be understood. Distinguishes between facts and inferences. Business Examples: Troubleshoot a piece of equipment by using logical deduction. Recognize logical fallacies in reasoning. Gathers information from a department and selects the required tasks for training.

Synthesis: Builds a structure or pattern from diverse elements. Put parts together to form a whole, with emphasis on creating a new meaning or structure. Business Examples: Write a company operations or process manual. Design a machine to perform a specific task. Integrates training from several sources to solve a problem. Revises and process to improve the outcome.

Evaluation: Make judgments about the value of ideas or materials. Business Examples: Select the most effective solution. Hire the most qualified candidate. Explain and justify a new budget.

For the last forty years, schools have been using a variety of standardized tests and other measurement tools to compete in the mad scramble for funding, and escape the regulatory nightmares imposed by their respective state Departments of Education. During that period test scores have largely held their own or made modest gains. School integration, affirmative-action programs, and bilingual education all have impacted to varying degrees on the performance scores which have been reported.

If schools are doing as well or a little better than they did 40 years ago at providing instruction to students, what then serves to explain the increasing discontent with school performance? The answer comes from the tremendous changes in the American workforce during that same time. Our national requirements have changed from a workforce largely composed of those who performed physical labor, or provided services to customers to one which is predominantly requires knowledge workers. Those who are engaged in management, scientific, technical, and creative work must have the skills listed above, to a far greater degree then earlier required.

This problem will only be addressed if we apply the same principles and methods of political activism we use to affect public policy, to influencing the curriculum and environment in which public schools operate. There are many pressure points available to parents and teachers. School board elections, teacher unions, and Parent-Teacher associations all provide entry points to the educational system. Yet, nothing will change until there is consensus of just what has to be changed.

Saturday, July 7, 2007

It's Time to Go!!

President George W. Bush
The White House
1600 Pennsylvania Ave.
Washington, D.C.

Dear Mr. President,

Even in the isolated environment that you have designed for yourself, I am certain you are now aware of the passionate call for your resignation issued by Keith Olbermann on his Countdown show for July 3, 2007. While it is unlikely that you gave much consideration to it (except perhaps amusement at its futility), I am writing to suggest that such an action would very much be in your own self interest, and perhaps serve to forestall some very unpleasant consequences in your future.

While not a physician, and not having access to your personal records, your performance provides many indications demonstrating that, for many years, you have experienced the effects of brain damage, resulting from your long-term alcoholism, along with extended cocaine usage. There is certainly ample evidence of your addictions, to these drugs, and equally to the inevitable consequences resulting from their use.

But for the fact that you selected a sociopath, far more intellectually capable than you, as your Vice President, the evident brain damage which you display would have triggered the 25th Amendment, long ago. Your intractability with respect to the Iraq War, your support of politicalization of the Department of Justice, your disastrous mismanagement of Hurricane Katrina, your total disregard for the law demonstrated by the Libby commutation, individually and severally conclusively demonstrate your inability to hold the office of President of the United States.

What is particularly fascinating is your apparent total disregard for the views of your fellow citizens, and the media which report upon them. That none but a few show any support for any of your policies causes you not the slightest concern. Your serene movement through the swamp of contempt and disgust surrounding you is truly astonishing.

"...And yet Bush does not come across like a man lamenting his plight. In public and in private, according to intimates, he exhibits an inexorable upbeat energy that defies the political storms. Even when he convenes philosophical discussions with scholars, he avoids second-guessing his actions. He still acts as if he were master of the universe, even if the rest of Washington no longer sees him that way."

"You don't get any feeling of somebody crouching down in the bunker," said Irwin M. Stelzer, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute who was part of one group of scholars who met with Bush. "This is either extraordinary self-confidence or out of touch with reality. I can't tell you which."

Since you have ample time to explore your interests, you might find it of interest to consider the end game for a man who must certainly rank among your short list of those you consider your heroes. Joseph McCarthy did his very best to use the tools then available, to foster the same kind of fear and loathing that has been the hallmark of your administration. His targeting of “Communists,” and the methods you employ to interrogate prisoners, stifle dissent, and wiretap American citizens have much in common. Yet, as you consider the end of McCarthy’s life, will you give even a passing thought to your life after January 20, 2009?

The senate investigations into the United States Army were televised and this helped to expose the tactics of Joseph McCarthy. One newspaper, the Louisville Courier-Journal, reported that: "In this long, degrading travesty of the democratic process, McCarthy has shown himself to be evil and unmatched in malice." Leading politicians in both parties, had been embarrassed by McCarthy's performance and on 2nd December, 1954, a censure motion condemned his conduct by 67 votes to 22.

McCarthy, who had been drinking heavily for many years, was discovered to have cirrhosis of the liver. An alcoholic, he was unable to take the advice of doctors and friends to stop drinking. Joseph McCarthy died in the Bethesda Naval Hospital on 2nd May, 1957. As the newspapers reported, McCarthy had drunk himself to death.

In his Special Comment calling for your resignation, Olbermann distinguishes your action from that of even Richard Nixon. He pointed out that once Nixon was finally convinced that impeachment was inevitable, he did the one final and honorable act that avoided the torture which the nation would have been put through; he resigned. While there is no indication that you have even the most passing interest in the lives of the citizens you govern, or the fate of the nation, it can be assumed that you have considerable interest in your own lifestyle once your cruel monarchy has ended.

The best future you have to which you can look forward is one of wealthy isolation. The nation and its media will wish to forget you as soon as possible. You can be certain there will be little, if any, demand for your gifted speech making abilities. Nor will there be a line at your door to seek your executive acumen being put to work as a director of many companies. Being left alone and forgotten is a best-case scenario for you.

If you have gotten this far, you are asking, “So, why should I resign?” The answer, George, is really very simple. While time, logistics, and pure politics make it unlikely that you will be impeached, there are a whole lot of people just waiting for the time you can be indicted for the many high crimes and misdemeanors you have committed during your two terms in office. How long do you think it will take either the new Administration or a petition from the public to convene a Federal Grand Jury, certain to indict you on any of a number of charges?

A solution to your problem looks something like this: Prior to resigning, you arrange with your crime partner, Cheney, to issue you a complete pardon, issued within hours of the time he takes office. Of course, he will shortly be impeached, but I’m sure with all the highly capable lawyers hanging around the White House, he can figure out a way to protect himself. After all, Spiro Agnew was able to walk away from criminal prosecution, and Cheney, all will agree is among the most gifted of criminals.

Tuesday, July 3, 2007

Timing is everything

All across the blogosphere are heard calls for the impeachment of Bush and/or Cheney. Others suggest that a Federal Grand Jury be convened via public petition. The point that everyone seems to miss is that with only 18 months left to go, and with the composition of the current Congress, the probability of removal from office of either or both is at best, very low.

Whatever your level of fear, loathing, contempt, and disgust for the evil twins, it comes down to the fact that we let ourselves get conned when we reelected them in ’04. Collectively, we as an electorate had plenty of evidence of just who and what these people were. The lies, the repression of dissent, the disregard for our position in the world, the failure to secure our borders, were all more than evident by the time we went to the ballot box, that November.

Before moving on, consider for just a moment what would happen if Nancy Pelosi was sworn in as President sometime in early 2008. Gonzalez would be gone, having left the Justice Department in total shambles. Being an election year, even the most competent and honest of the Bush Administration would be scrambling to get out and find new jobs for themselves. Pelosi clearly would not be a candidate for continuing incumbency. Obstructionism would be the word of the day from the Republican side.

It would be most interesting to hear from readers as to how such a scenario is more desirable than is the current one, where Bush is functionally totally isolated. He can continue the war, for a while, but even there, there are signs that constraints will soon become imposed on his ability to keep our troops facing the current level of danger. Domestically, he is paralyzed by increasing resistance and suspicion from Congress.

Looking back, failed presidencies and failed candidacies have both contained a common element – broken promises. LBJ was going to win and end the Vietnam war, which instead deteriorated to a stunning failure; Bush 41 promised no new taxes, and drove the popularity derived from the stunning management of the Gulf War to the cellar with the deep recession of his last years in office. While there were many factors in play, Kerry lost the ’04 election because he failed to communicate a clear philosophy of governance.

So, instead of concentrating your time and attention on Bush/Cheney, it seems far more productive that we insure the next President and Congress will reverse the direction taken by the current administration and their now diminishing congressional support. We can do this by demanding of candidates that they make commitments in as specific terms as possible, their policy intent, should they be elected.

Participation in nominating and primary campaign election activity, particularly for members of the House, would seem to be among the more beneficial uses of time and effort for those who have genuine interest in bringing about reform --- rather than whining about that which we cannot realistically change.

This is not to say that Bush/Cheney will escape responsibility for their criminal behavior. Indictments can be quickly obtained once the new administration and Congress are in place. An honest government will bring with it far more opportunity for real prosecution without the chaos and interruption that impeachment or indictments would bring today. And one thing we can be certain of… there won’t be any pardons which they can expect to receive.