Data Mining White Paper

I address in this monograph a number of techniques for those without a great deal of training to engage in some productive methods for mining data -- from Text Mining, through Exploratory Data Analysis, to a focus on the use of Contingency Tables, using some advanced methods of text tagging.

Here it is:

The Immigration Puzzle

For years, I have watched the debate on attempts to develop a rational policy to encompass the problem of illegal immigration. Given the proposition that no politician votes for anything unless it meets the test of personal self interest, the proposed Senate proffered legislation would appear to violate this “Natural Law” of political behavior.

That this beleaguered President has been able to achieve, in the face of substantial opposition from legitimate legal citizens of the United States, agreement, uniting congressional forces which are otherwise locked in a political war missing only lethal weapons, is among the most puzzling of societal mysteries.

Far beyond this mystery is the genuine risk to national security, and to an end of an American culture which has evolved over the last quarter millennium. An OpEdNews.com contributor, Donna Poisl, has written a four part Article, titled Everyone will benefit from immigration reform. These writings frankly are very, very scary. Why? Because the naiveté demonstrated by the writer, is the same dangerous naiveté shown by people of goodwill and compassion as they join with special interest groups in advocating what amounts to total amnesty for illegal aliens.

What is even stranger is that the members of the House and the Senate who are trying to push through an Immigration Reform Act, are quite possibly committing political suicide, since the proposed legislation is in total opposition to the electorate. Look at some of the polls collected by FAIR (Federation for American Immigration Reform, as it mounts the battle against the currently proposed Act.

Here are the results of just one of several polls found on that site:

89% of Americans think illegal immigration into the U.S. is a problem (30% "extremely serious," 33% "very serious," and 26% "somewhat serious." (Time Magazine, Jan. 2006)

82% think that not enough is being done along the borders to keep illegal immigrants from crossing into the country. (Time Magazine, Mar. 2006)

68% feel that the number of immigrants who cross the border, whether legal or illegal is “too high”. (Polling Company, Sept. 2006)

62% oppose making it easier for illegal immigrants to become citizens of America. (Quinnipiac Univ., Feb. 2006)

Leaving aside the Hispanic and special interest groups spearheading the call for amnesty, there appear to be three elements being employed, all irrational and factually unsupported by those who support the Guest Worker element of the act.

1. Finding and deporting illegal aliens cannot be achieved: Poisl quotes George Bush asserting, “… the idea of finding and deporting all illegal immigrants might sound good, but it won't happen,” during a recent Arizona speech. It is unclear whether her personal view is that she agrees with Bush, or that she believes that he has made a personal determination not to enforce the laws of the United States.

As we have seen with the Iraq war, the last thing this President attends to is rational analysis of issues. It is he who has decided that adherence and enforcement of this country’s laws are simply a matter of his personal choice. From his intractable stubbornness in holding to his Iraq war prosecution against all evidence, despite universal advice to the contrary, to his disregard for and manipulation of NSA wiretap law, there is ample proof that this is a President responding only to his own inner voices, regardless of external reality.

2. The Guilt Trip: Poisl asserts, “Most people admit that we are all responsible: whether we hire the workers; buy what they produce; vote for the people who passed the laws that allowed it to get this far or if we didn’t vote at all. And since we are responsible for the problem, we should be responsible and try to fix it.

Sorry! I had nothing to do with allowing any illegal to enter this country, nor have I hired any, nor knowingly purchase any goods or services from any of these people. Nor did I vote for the incompetent President who actively thwarts enforcement of existing law – so please take your ridiculous guilt trip and dump it somewhere else.

3. Integrating illegals will economically benefit the United States: This assertion flies in the face of every economic and security study bearing on the subject, of which I am aware:

“The people who are against this should consider that legalizing these people will benefit the whole country; the military, Social Security, our economy, our future economy, education, even our national security.”

In an article by David Limbaugh, titled, ”The Immigration Debacle,” some estimated real costs of amnesty are projected:

“As reported in the Washington Times, the Heritage Foundation's Robert Rector calculates that during their lifetimes, they will likely receive "$2.5 trillion more in government services than they will pay in taxes." Among those benefits are Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, SSI, public housing, subsidized college education and Social Security Disability Insurance. So those persisting in challenging the amnesty characterization should be reminded that many illegals will be receiving an enormous economic windfall to accompany their anemic wrist-slapping.”

Even if all of the above assertions made by Poisl were, in fact, accurate, the dangers faced by our society override any or all of these justifications. To understand these dangers, we must wade into the thousand page document with which the Senate is wrestling. Title VI: Nonimmigrants in the United States, Previously in Unlawful Status.

In essence, key provisions of this Act allow almost everyone to acquire a “Z-Visa,” which once held gives the holder access to all services offered to a citizen with the sole exception of voting. This short summary makes that provision crystal clear:

· Creates a Z nonimmigrant visa program for illegal aliens and illegal aliens only. No one else is eligible.

· Probationary benefits, including work authorization, protection from removal, and a social security number are granted to illegal aliens immediately, based only on the submission of an application (with fingerprints) and a 24-hour wait on a background check.

· These probationary benefits are not subject to the trigger in Title I of the bill. Z nonimmigrant visas are valid for 4 years and may be renewed indefinitely.

· Numerous criminal provisions are waived for eligibility purposes. No medical exam is needed to get a Z visa.

· There is no English requirement to get a Z visa. A Z nonimmigrant must only demonstrate “an attempt to gain an understanding of the English language” upon the first renewal of a Z visa (i.e. after four years).

· State and local governments are required to assist illegal aliens in providing documentation to support a Z visa application in order to receive state impact assistance money.

· State impact money will be granted to states to provide services for non-citizens (see § 402(b) (p. 156-159)).

· Z nonimmigrants may apply for green cards and become citizens. While they must wait until some existing applications are processed, they are not required to wait in line behind those who have applied for green cards after May 1, 2005. Moreover, they get to live and work in the U.S. while they wait.

Literally, all that stands between the granting of a visa to any terrorist, drug dealer, violent criminal, or homicidal maniac, is a background check which must be completed within 24 hours of receipt of application. Presumably, under these provisions, Osama Bin Laden, could, with little difficulty, become a legal resident of this country, and freely access medical treatment for his various ailments, before he set off to attack on an American City!

The net result of this admissions policy is that of giving complete freedom to roughly six time the number of currently incarcerated violent prisoners currently imprisoned in the United States,

To become an LPR (Legal Permanent Resident), a Z-1 nonimmigrant must pay a $4,000 penalty (Z-2 and Z-3 aliens are only required to pay applicable fees).

Even if we were to somehow find a way of separating and deporting or containing the criminal element of all who will seek the Z-Visa, that does nothing to ameliorate the billions of dollars that has already been spent and will continue to grow in an accelerating spiral, if this legislation passes. A 2004 study by the Heritage Foundation demonstrates some of the governmental programs where expenditures will always exceed revenue from this unskilled and dependent population.

While these expenditures may ultimately be simply too large for most of us to grasp, there are three elements, directly experienced which result from the presence of these unwanted, unneeded, and uninvited additions to our population:

1. Public Education: Once having arrived, immigrants either bring existing or form new families. Inevitably, their progeny adds overwhelming numbers to the existing school infrastructure. Unlike previous immigrant populations, these children have little motivation to learn, are disruptive, and most importantly seek to require the schools to provide instruction in their native (predominantly Spanish) language, rather than being motivated to rapidly acquire skills in English. Resulting in overcrowded classrooms, the need for multilingual faculty, disruptive and aggressive behavior, the results for those students for whom the process was intended are nothing but bad.

2. Health Care: The next time you are stuck for hours waiting for emergency medical services, or the next time you find your medical insurance premiums have become more costly, you know who you have to blame. All over the country, emergency rooms are closing, medical practice is deteriorating and costs are rising – due largely to the uninsured illegal who demands free medical services.

I started these thoughts with a mystery – the presence of congressional willingness to, rather than attempt to limit the damage caused by the flood of illegal immigrants, become willing participants in increasing the damage they cause. While most may be greedy, power hungry, and self serving, the majority are far from stupid people. With a constituency dead set against the provisions of this bill, a President who has lost almost all support, there remains only the advocacy of corporate America to motivate passage.

Where Have All The Leaders Gone?

November, 2006 was a time of celebration and high hopes. The newly elected Democratic majority would soon wrest control of a hated war from the sole control of a megalomaniacal President, and begin the process of returning our courageous military to their families and loved ones. Beyond the progressive thinking of Congress the country could expect a field of presidential candidates, any of whom could be counted on to bring the dawn of new hope to despondent America.

That was then. Today, the country remains mired in a war showing no signs of progress, and in fact has become even more deadly. Not only has the surge failed to end the violence, the current deployment has increased the casualty rate for our soldiers and marines. While the visible death and injury rate continues to grow, while the once relatively safe Green Zone is now subject to almost daily shelling, it seems far too optimistic to expect that the President will give even the most passing thought to the terrible psychological damage suffered by repeated deployments to the combat zone. A recent MSNBC article sheds the light of day on Athis dark problem:

“While much of the attention has been on physical wounds like traumatic brain injuries, as well as squalid living conditions for recovering soldiers, doctors, families and lawmakers are expressing growing concerns that veterans are not be getting the right mental health help.

“Those worries come as President George W. Bush has ordered almost 30,000 more troops to Iraq. Already 1.5 million soldiers have been deployed in the U.S.-led war on terrorism, with one-third serving at least two combat tours, which increases the chances of PTSD.

“The Department of Veterans Affairs estimates 12 percent to 20 percent of those who served in Iraq suffer from PTSD. A 2004 Army study found 16.6 percent of those returning from combat tested positive for the disorder.

“Individuals suffer from PTSD if they relive the trauma, experience emotional numbness, isolation, depression, substance abuse, and memory problems. These often lead to job instability and marital troubles."

The July/August 2006 issue of Foreign Affairs makes clear the extent to which the Iraq war has decimated the ability of the United States Military to maintain, let alone expand its war fighting manpower resources.

"The U.S. military suffers from a glaring manpower deficiency. The ongoing wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have demonstrated that in operations such as counterinsurgency, counterterrorism, stabilization, and peacekeeping, even the United States' impressive technology cannot substitute for soldiers. As Kagan observes, only soldiers possess the requisite combination of brainpower and weaponry to "mix with an enemy's population, identify the combatants intermingled with that population, and accomplish the critical tasks of governance and reorganization that are so essential in persuading an enemy government to surrender."

The Bush administration, however, does not share this assessment, as evidenced by its handling of the invasion of Iraq. Before the war, Rumsfeld was dismissive, even contemptuous, of warnings from senior U.S. military officials, such as former Army Chief of Staff General Eric Shinseki, that securing Iraq would require a vast number of boots on the ground. The secretary and his allies contended that the war and the occupation could be managed with a relatively light and short troop deployment. This belief reflected the strategic theory underpinning Rumsfeld's military-transformation agenda, which prioritizes long-range airpower and the development of ever more technologically sophisticated equipment and weaponry over expanded ground forces."

And so the war rages on. Congress talks and talks and talks, passes legislation aimed at starting withdrawal, while the President scolds, and ignores. Meanwhile the slate of Democratic presidential candidates universally decries the continuation of the war. Yet none offer a plan for ending the actions of a President run amok. Instead we here vague references to “phased withdrawal,” and “benchmarks,” as though either of these concepts will be implemented during the remainder of Bush’s term.

I have yet to hear a single candidate, Democrat or Republican, present an action plan for addressing the war. By “action plan,” I mean something more substantive than John McCain’s lemming-like fantasy of adding more non-existent warriors to achieve what even he acknowledges, is, at best, a hoped for, “Victory.”

When the pejorative, “Surrender Monkeys,” issues from an O’Reilly, Hannity, or Beck, most will simply discard such primitive name calling as the drooling product of the low end of the spectrum of knuckle-draggers. Yet, when carefully considered it seems quite appropriate as a description of our elected leaders – bereft of solutions, and lacking the courage to implement, even when they are clearly available.

Can there be any among us that can make a single argument on behalf of retaining Alberto Gonzalez as the Attorney General of the United States? Are there any who find reasonable doubt in the assertion that he has violated the sacred trust that he shall protect and defend the Constitution of the United States, prosecuting lawbreakers, while protecting citizens from the excesses of an unfettered government? Daily, new evidence of his criminality, dishonesty, and incompetence is piled higher and higher for all to see.

An argument can be made explaining the failure to find solutions to the problem of a chaotic, confused and disorganized Middle East Region. The consequences are serious, options limited, and resources, few. Yet the same cannot be said for the continuing criminality of Bush, Cheney, Gonzalez and Rove. The solution is clear. Removal from office is the only way we can rid ourselves of those who have either forgotten or never knew of their responsibility and accountability to those who elected them.

The process for removal is available now. But it takes moving from talk to action. It takes courage to take the lead, or just simple agreement to act in a way that potential political consequences; it take placing the good of the country in place of self-interest.

In short, it takes Leadership. Between now and the primaries, and the 2008 election, we all will have the opportunity to find who will lead, and who not.

Atheists, take heart!

Perhaps it is the difference between theoretical and applied science, but one gets the sense that a far greater preponderance of astrophysicists, or mathematicians remain advocates of theist positions than, let’s say the biologist, or statistician. Perhaps if true, the difference rests with the expectation that the applied scientist will develop something of value, while the pure theoretician, in the end is accountable to the acceptance or rejection of his peers. I for one, have an aging brain which finds it impossible to make much, if any, sense out of this singularity, stringy, banging universe stuff, in which the students of the universe apparently find so much pleasure conjuring up. While it all sounds very intriguing, I am completely unable to remotely relate it to anything in my daily life.

Assume (please, only momentarily) that "God," whatever it is, exists. Now, what do I do with it? Unlike electricity, gravity, or even a pet goldfish, its behavior is totally unpredictable. We can predict with varying accuracy the occurrence and location of such natural phenomena as pandemics, tornadoes, floods, blizzards, and earthquakes. All can, and do, have terrible consequences for real people, yet with all of our technology, the best we can do is to warn of their occurrence, marginally mitigate their results through varying levels of preparation, and clean up after they occur.

Just recently astronomers have celebrated the existence of a potential "Goldilocks" planet. That it it may be capable of supporting life is indeed interesting, but again, so what? We aren't going there anytime soon, its potential inhabitants not soon likely to pay us a visit, nor even chat with us. We have no way to make any use of our knowledge of its existence.

If, by some unlikely chance, Dr, Paul Tipler, a much maligned author of (allegedly terribly boring and useless) physics textbooks has got it completely right when he asserts, “Sorry Atheists, God has been Scientifically Proven,” his complete disregard for Occam’s Razor, and Marketing 101, dictate that his shining pearls of wisdom will remain forever, unused.

Recall the frequently used adage, “Observations are gold; hypotheses, silver; and conclusions, bronze.” When it comes to discussing the theoretical construct that theists have labeled, “God,” I see a whole bunch of differing and frequently contradictory conclusions, no discernable, testable hypothesis(es), and surely not a single repeatable, verifiable observation.

Sorry Atheists, God has been Scientifically Proven! - JREF Forum

Idiot's can have PhD's, write books, and still be Idiots!

Sorry Atheists, God has been Scientifically Proven! - JREF Forum

This Is Your Brain Online, How Video Games, Multitasking And Blogging Are Shaping The GenTech Brain - CBS News

A CBS News discussion of the impact of online multi-tasking on teen brain development

This Is Your Brain Online, How Video Games, Multitasking And Blogging Are Shaping The GenTech Brain - CBS News

Military Recruiting - A Seduction of the Innocent

In a recent article, Titled, Lying and Dying, Missy Comley Beattie suggests that if only military recruiters would fully disclose the lies perpetrated by the Bush Administration, potential recruits would make far more informed decisions, resulting in far fewer additions to the combat forces.

This writer holds a quite different view than does Ms. Beattie. There are a number of problems with her proposed solution, making its implementation a forlorn fantasy, impossible to achieve.

Army recruiters are first and foremost, true believers. They are career NCOs (Non-Commissioned Officers), all with a minimum rank of Sergeant First Class. Invariably they have had several combat deployments. Whatever political opinions they may hold, any public policy criticism is certain career ending behavior (perhaps only running a close second to having a relationship with one’s Commanding Officer’s underage daughter!)

Whatever criticism one may have of military effectiveness, efficiency, or intelligence, there is one thing the Department of Defense does exceedingly well. It operates a marketing/public relations machine that might well engender the envy of any private sector company.

Beyond TV ads advertising the “opportunities” offered by the Army, special appearances by combat veterans are designed to motivate and co-opt the interest of potential recruits As one example, the “Why I Serve” program is a careful appeal to the protection of personal family, and the camaraderie of one’s military family. The comments of one of the participants leaves no question as to the focus of this program.

“’My biggest reason for serving is my family,’ said MacDonald, a combat medic who returned in 2006 from a deployment to Iraq. ‘I looked at my family, and I realized that I want them and their way of life to be protected,’ he said. ‘And one of the only ways to do that is to go overseas and take the fight to the enemy who are perfectly willing to come here and kill themselves just to kill an American. … It requires some sacrifice, but I am willing to do that.’”

America’s Army provides a sanitized view of combat that offers the immature the ultimate pain–free virtual opportunity to “kill people and break things.”

“’America’s Army,’ offers a range of games that kids can download or play online. Although the games are violent, with plenty of opportunities to shoot and blow things up, they avoid graphic images of death or other ugliness of war, offering instead a sanitized, Tom Clancy version of fantasy combat.”

In the end, it is not the PR, not the advertising, not the computer games. nor any of the other varied recruiting techniques employed by the Defense Department.

Rather, it is the gullible readiness of the targeted group – young adult men and women – to uncritically accept all of the promised opportunities as accurate and truthful, while rejecting the more probable threats to health, and life itself.

Regardless of the portrait painted by recruiters, can potential recruits be so unaware of the increased deployment time, and the ugly conditions that exist in a combat situation? Even were recruiters to disclose all of the ugly lies, misrepresentations, and distortions engaged in by Bush, Cheney, et al, would this information dissuade those who choose this career?

The answer would seem to be that the “truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth,” would have little effect on the number added to the military each year. This view is readily understood after reading this description of adolescent risk taking:

“The socioemotional system, which processes social and emotional information, becomes very active during puberty allowing adolescents to become more easily aroused and experience more intense emotion, and to become more sensitive to social influence. Conversely, says Steinberg, the cognitive-control system is the part of the brain that regulates behavior and makes the ultimate decisions, but is still maturing during adolescence and into a person's mid-20s at least.”

The ideal recruitment target can be typically described as an adolescent male endeavoring to satisfy his ever present need for thrill-seeking, risk-taking, adrenaline producing behavior. Military service additionally provides both peer and adult community approval and support. Coupled with a frequent lack of a respected male role to help guide and place limits on impulsive, self-destructive behavior, the successfully recruited trainee resembles nothing so closely as the “groomed target” of the sexual predator.

For those who may find the above to be an insult to the courage, commitment and driving sense of duty to country and comrades alike, be assured it does not. Rather, it is a critique of the essential slavery under which the military “volunteer” is placed once having accepted employment as a member of the United States Military. He must go where sent, do anything assigned, accept any environment, allow himself to be placed in harm’s way, with no option to withdraw from such assignments until his employers allow it. In fact, even after having left active duty, as a member of the military reserve, he can be recalled at the whim of the Federal Government.

For those who choose to perform their civic duty as first responders to natural disasters, through membership in their state National Guard, they can be Federalized, placed in an active combat environment, and ripped from their homes, jobs, and families for whatever period of time the government deems necessary.

The soldier relinquishes his Constitutional rights during his service with the military, under the draconian provisions of the United States Code of Military Justice (UCMJ). Here are a couple of items, illustrative of the surrender of personal rights to which all member of the military must acquiesce. These behaviors, engaged in by a civilian, at worst case, might result in loss of employment. However, under military law each can result in imprisonment:

Article 86—Absence without leave

“Any member of the armed forces who, without authority— (1) fails to go to his appointed place of duty at the time prescribed; (2) goes from that place; or (3) absents himself or remains absent from his unit, organization, or place of duty at which he is required to be at the time prescribed; shall be punished as a court-martial may direct.” Depending on the duration of the absence, maximum punishment can include forfeiture of all pay and benefits, Dishonorable Discharge, and most importantly, up to 18 months in a Federal Prison!

Article 89—Disrespect toward a superior commissioned officer

“Any person subject to this chapter who behaves with disrespect toward his superior commissioned officer shall be punished as a court-martial may direct.”

This behavior is defined by the following behaviors: 1) That the accused did or omitted certain acts or used certain language to or concerning a certain commissioned officer; (2) That such behavior or language was directed toward that officer; (3) That the officer toward whom the acts, omissions, or words were directed was the superior commissioned officer of the accused; (4) That the accused then knew that the commissioned officer toward whom the acts, omissions, or words were directed was the accused’s superior commissioned officer; and (5) That, under the circumstances, the behavior or language was disrespectful to that commissioned officer. Maximum punishment can include: Bad-conduct discharge, forfeiture of all pay and allowances, and confinement for 1 year.

This is neither an argument for nor against the provisions of UCMJ. Rather the failure of the recruitment process to inform potential trainees of all of the negatives, potentially consequential to signing a largely inescapable commitment to a dangerous and inflexible employer, appears to this writer to be an egregious breach of a most fundamental ethical concept applied to the citizen vis-à-vis his government. That concept is that of informed consent, to employment or circumstances putting the individual in danger, at economic risk, of unknown duration, etc.

Quite frankly, the nuances of why we are fighting which enemy pale before this deliberate “Seduction of the Innocent,” achieved through planful omission of risks and costs associated with military membership, vs. the offered benefits dangled before wide-eyed, willing victims.

It's in the brain

My thoughts about how the findings of neuroscience affect our political preferences and affiliations.

It's All in the brain

Whose War was it?

An interesting take on whether Bush had the authority to actually engage in the Iraq war, or for that matter whether the troops actually "belong" to him.

Guns Don't Kill, Bullets Do

It was inevitable that the advocates from both sides of the gun control issue would creep from the woodwork, even before the full facts of the Virginia Tech are available. Still, the act of a lone, mentally ill killer, provides nothing new to the arguments heard over and over again from both sides. No one disputes the extensive use of firearms in criminal activities ranging from Armed Robbery to Homicide.

With all the state and federal statues passed to restrict or prevent the illegal use of firearms, their usage rates have not changed appreciably – certainly not enough to say, “This legislation has fixed the problem.” Given this reality, an objective assessment of why all our efforts to use the law have failed to prevent criminal weapons usage, would seem to be far more useful than emotional, reactive efforts to pass (or prevent) new laws.

The root cause of the VT tragedy rested with only one fact. Existing statutes, designed to prevent such horrific killings, were not enforced. In the State of Virginia, a person who has been adjudicated as being a threat to himself or others cannot legally obtain a firearm. Cho Seung-Hui, indeed, fit this criterion. A Virginia Court had found that he fit this criterion, and had ordered him committed. Yet, he was able to legally obtain the weapons used. Somewhere, in the complex information chain, the weapons dealer was not informed that his sale of a handgun was prohibited.

This single instance suggests an answer to the more general problem. For every firearm used in a premeditated criminal act, one or many statutes designed to prevent such acts were not enforced. This same generalization applies to more than the criminal use of firearms. How about the twelve million, or more, illegal immigrants residing in the United States? What could be more apparent than the deliberate failure to enforce deportation and employment laws than actions taken by all levels of law enforcement, from local to Federal? What about the millions of identity thefts occurring each year? The proximate cause for such theft is error… a failure to protect the sensitive personal information leading to these thefts.

In the supply chain, from manufacturer to end-user, two problems occur. With all transactions occurring in the private sector, both error and deliberate action make possible the violations that occur. So the question becomes one of developing policies and procedures which can increase the effective enforcement of existing firearms law. It certainly is not one of passing new or repealing existing legislation. It is one of making the existing legislation work, as intended.

To achieve their intended purpose, a symbiotic relationship exists between the weapon and its ammunition. Neither can operate without the functionality of the other. The gun owner will typically go to the same source for ammunition as he did for the gun. Although each is equally necessary, authorization to purchase a complete weapon system (the gun and the ammunition) is, for all practical purposes, directed at the hardware, with little attention being paid to those purchasing ammunition. Yet, the diversity of available ammunition available for use with a given handgun can raise immediate questions about its intended use. Handgun ammunition best suited for target shooting is quite different from that designed to inflict maximum damage and lethality on human beings.

The requirements for licensing of firearms dealers, set forth in USC Title 18923, make no mention of any knowledge qualifications related to either the weapons or the ammunition intended to be sold, let alone any forensic knowledge which might be helpful in spotting those with criminal purposes. If the sellers of the weapons and ammunition Cho used had such knowledge, the purchase of Hollow Point ammunition in large quantities might very well have raised questions regarding his intent.

While the illegal purchase of a handgun requires some cleverness and knowledge about sources, no such difficulty exists when it comes to the purchase of ammunition. It can be purchased anywhere, including the Internet. Given all of the above, would it not make preventative sense to make the requirements for the purchase of ammunition as rigorous, or even greater than that for purchasing the gun? What about separating those who sell the hardware from those who sell the ammunition, as being completely separate suppliers?

Clearly, those in the community having the most knowledge about ammunition, its performance, and its potential damage to victims are the local/state police and sheriffs. If law enforcement has control of all ammunition, it is in the best position to insure that it does not fall into the hands of criminals or the mentally ill. If all ammunition is sold on the premises, of a law enforcement agency, the chances of theft are far reduced than when fund in a commercial facility.

Once implemented, anyone seeking ammunition would purchase it at police stations, Sherriff’s offices, or State Police facilities. Permits might include a maximum number of rounds, limits on types of ammunition purchased, etc. All of these procedures would be under state control, as are controls on concealed weapons licenses, purchase of destructive or hazardous materials, etc.

All revenue derived from the sales of ammunition would go to state or local law enforcement agencies, as determined by each state legislature. This would be consistent with other state revenue raising activities such as issuance of hunting licenses, drivers licenses, license plate fees, or admission to state operated recreational facilities.

But what of the case of Cho? While if the plan described above were implemented, the amount of ammunition he purchased and the type of rounds purchased might well have raised the suspicions of police selling ammunition, he might well have been able to maintain an appearance, and construct a credible reason for purchasing the ammunition. Maintaining a state-wide database of all ammunition purchased by an individual by date, number of rounds, and type, as well as maximum limits on aggregate purchases could certainly have raised warning flags, and could well have limited the deaths he caused.

All of which brings us back to the basic question of personal privacy versus the public interest. We have the technology to insure the identity and relevant information about every citizen can be carried on a credit card sized piece of plastic. We could certainly code such a card with information regarding that person’s permission to drive a motor vehicle, purchase a handgun, purchase alcoholic beverages, as well as access permission host of other services that are regulated by the State. We could severely limit identity theft, while at the same time make a medical history available in the event the holder of the card is unable to provide information to those treating him.

Beyond insuring the individual access to services to which he is qualified to receive , and preventing him from engaging in illegal activity, or which accessing services to which he has no permission to receive, there are broader national implications for such an ID card. It would end, once and forever after any question of who among us is a citizen of this country, who a legal guest, and who is illegally present. Ultimately, as each person is furnished a personal ID card, it would sharply reduce the cost and error rate of conducting the decennial census, more accurately specifying the number of members of the House of Representatives, and potentially providing a more frequent census.

Once fully in place, the cost of government would be sharply decreased, violent criminal behavior could be expected to decline, and we could severely limit the potential for terrorist attacks.

Those in opposition cite the erosion of what is interpreted as a Constitutional guarantee of a right to privacy. Ten years ago, in May, 1997, Steven Moore, an economist with the Cato Institute provided congressional testimony which well articulates the principle objections to this perceived invasion of privacy. While the technology has made quantum leaps in capabilities, the issues he raised remain at the core of why we have yet to implement such a plan.

Before the tragedy of Virginia Tech fades from your attention, consider the solutions offered above and take the appropriate action with your lawmakers.

The Religous Right in the Bush Admnistration

While you watch in wonder at the delusional stubbornness of George Bush, you will find yourself bemused by the flakiness of his associates.

Read this article from Salon.com.

Another Example of Failed Illegal Prevention

This short article shows the problems we have in trying to keep the illegals out!

L.A. Police Sued Over Immigrant Policy - Los Angeles Times

Moral Decline Caused by?

Townhall.com::The Numbers on Moral Decline::By Brent Bozell III

The thrust of the article is that the majority of Americans see the country in "moral decline," with Bozell's explanation for this phenomenon being essentially that this decline results from the media, both traditional and Internet furnished.

After reading this article, I made the following comment:

How can those, now children, teens, or young adults choose anything but immoral behavior when they see or hear of:

1. Their teachers and school administrators deliberately cheating on test scores to get more money for the school district.

2. The hypocrisy of a potential presidential candidate, who, while calling for the impeachment of a President for lying about adulterous behavior, is himself engaged in that same behavior?

3. A President, who vows to do everything to "support the troops," fails to provide long terms care to the wounded, with information about conditions at Walter Reed available four years ago?

4. An Administration which convicted two Border patrol Agents for doing their jobs, lies to obtain the desired verdict, and now allows them to suffer the brutalities of prison life as it fails to pardon them from the consequences of very lies it has used to convict them?

A Google search for "political scandal" brings up more than 2 million pages tracing the immoral/illegal behavior of our political leaders -- much of which is rewarded by reelection or monetary gain, and far less frequently punished.

Rather than blaming "the media," or the Internet, a focus on the behavior of our leaders might be far more productive in reversing a trend toward the behavior we say we do not want.

A Suugested solution to the failure of Public Education

Townhall.com::Higher Grades, Lower Scores::By Debra J. Saunders

This article pointing out many of the failures of Public Education inspired me to this response:

We have seen an abundance of explanations for the failure of public education to provide its graduates with even the most modest ability to engage in critical analysis, solutions to problems to which they have not been previously exposed, or the capability to evaluate the ideas of others.

We have been told that the cause is lack of parental responsibility, mediocre teachers, classroom overcrowding, the impact of non-English speaking students, grade inflation, cheating, school violence, the prevalence of drugs, ad infinitum.

I’d like to suggest a more basic answer. Schools don’t exist to foster well prepared, intellectually powerful graduates. To the contrary, such individuals are a threat to the real purpose of Public Education. The real purpose of schools is to develop acceptance of authority, and conformity to the social norms which the schools make massive efforts to insure.

Consider your own education during the period when you were exposed to this process. Research has shown that almost universally, expectations for student knowledges and skills, consists almost entirely of rote memorization, simple description and matching, and the using of rules given by teachers. (The rules for solving Algebra problems is an example of Rule Using – Students simply apply rules they have been given, but do not derive any new rules for themselves.)

Students who evidence curiosity, who want to take side trips from the prescribed curriculum, or worst of all challenge pronouncements of the teacher are subject to responses ranging from insult and sarcasm to failing grades, to suspension or institutional expulsion. (Can you think of anything more ridiculous than a “zero tolerance policy expelling a child for having lemon drops (a “drug”) or a keychain mounted miniature pistol?

We see this phenomenon to an even greater degree in colleges and universities, where students are expected to be docile receptacles of the political and personal agenda of their professors.

As an employee, how many times have you been told by supervisor or manager that your questioning of procedure, process, or company rules is reduced to “My way or the highway?” What about your periodic performance evaluations, when such items as being a “team player,” or “fosters company values,” rather than contribution to productivity become primary factors by which your value as an employee is judged?

The power differential between child and adult teacher is even greater since the child has little choice but to ultimately bow to the demands of the teacher, guidance counselor, or school administrator, while as an adult, you have the opportunity to extricate yourself from a hostile work environment.

Fortunately, technology can provide a potential escape hatch from such an intellectually confining situation. Free or low cost audio/video/whiteboard conferencing software facilitates home based learning, with expert online tutors, or student selected conference group leaders having great freedom to meet the needs of students to exercise creativity, problem solving, and most of all, satisfy curiosity. Structured computer assisted instruction can insure that specific skills are mastered before the student continues to the next problem. Such factors as ethnicity, age, cultural background, and teacher bias are completely eliminated from the factors determining student success.

These tools can either substitute for formal education (e.g., home schooling) or supplement attendance at the local school. Were such a process to be formalized, with the bulk of intellectual skills being acquired through flexible, ever patient technology, schools could focus on those activities which are best served through social interaction. Physical education, social interest clubs, music performance, etc. , are all instances in which putting classmates together are essential to the development of the complete person.

Falling for Junk Science - the tale of Global Warming

Is it an "Inconvenient" or "Unlikely" Truth?

Below are some of the elements that comprise the conjectures of those who advocate taking action to mitigate the damages that are predicted resulting from the presumed warming of the Earth.

1. The global temperature, over the last hundred years, has trended upward, with the actual increases subject to dispute, depending on which “expert” findings are being used.

2. Terrible consequences will result, including a rise in ocean height (ranging in magnitude from 18 inches to 20 feet, depending on whose predictions are in play), which will make shoreline population centers uninhabitable, cause animal species to disappear, generate massive storm systems, and other phenomena, all of which reduce the quality of life on earth.

3. These consequences will occur at some unspecified time in the future, years from now.

4. This rise in temperature is either exclusively or primarily, due to an increased presence of Carbon Dioxide, caused by man-made pollution from cars, power plants, and other industrial sources.

5. To have any chance to intervene in these changes, all of the world’s inhabitants must begin immediately to reduce this pollution.

Notice that the likelihood that each assumption is absolutely dependent on the accuracy of the previous assertion. If any assumption is false, or questionable, those following cannot be valid.

Temperature Trending Upward?

Suppose for a moment that based on temperature measurements during the 20^th century, advocates of the global warming hypothesis predict that the 21^st century will see the following rise in the average yearly global temperature beginning in 2000 with the prediction ending in the year 2100.

Certainly, if we accept this graph, it clearly shows that global temperature is climbing, and at some point, it will rise to a point that will significantly effect the Earth’s climate.

Now, let’s jump ahead to our long removed descendants, assuming they have hung around the Earth, instead of migrating out to the Sun’s planets, or far beyond, to other galaxies.

In the year 3750, scientist begin to track the measured rise and fall of the Earth’s temperature, since 1900. Supposing this graph represents their findings:

The difference in the two graphs represents the most severe of the problems in the calculation of trends. Taken against the age of the earth, or for that matter, the length of time that human beings have inhabited the planet, one hundred years is a completely unreliable base (sample) upon which to premise future predictions.

The Consequences of Global Warming

Given that the trend demonstrated in the first graph is accurate, the rise in oceanic levels is the most devastating of the hypothesized consequences. The cause is presumed to rest with the melting of glaciers throughout the world. Yet, while advocates assert temperature is rising, and polar glaciers are receding as predicted, Antarctic glaciers have been growing. That this is occurring, would seem to reduce the probability of a direct casual relationship between temperature and oceanic height.

A second problem associated with predictions of the magnitude of the change which is forecasted. With a range of 18 inches to 20 feet, (over an undefined period of time) there is obvious disagreement among those making these predictions. There would seem to be several possible reasons for the disparity: (a) investigators are using the same data, with differences in conclusions resulting from the use of varying mathematical models; (b) investigators work from diverse raw data sets, leading to the variances in findings; (c) some combination of (a) and (b). Given this variance, on what is strategic planning to be based?

There is also the problem of establishing a cause-effect relationship between events. The permafrost is liquefying throughout Alaska and much of Russia. This presents serious problems, as the frost line goes to deeper levels of the ground. Yet, while this change is definitely occurring, are we able to say that there is a direct causal linkage between this event and the hypothesized rise in temperature?

Time Frame for Consequences

Earthquakes are a known danger for those located along the Pacific rim – a substantial portion of the world’s population. Scientists can predict the magnitude, the damage that can occur, and the geographic areas likely to suffer loss of life, injury and property destruction. No one doubts that destructive quakes will occur, since there has been much to verify that they do, and excellent data describing their past effects. What cannot be predicted is precisely when quakes will happen. Yet, time probability predictions have been made. For those affected by the San Andreas fault, there is a 70% probability that a magnitude 7.0 or greater quake will occur within the next thirty years.

As described earlier, there is a 1 in 10,000 chance that an asteroid will strike the Earth between 2034 and 2036, causing severe regional damage. A specific impact point is unavailable as of this writing.

Not so with the dire predictions of Global warming. Neither time, nor the extent of damage or destruction have been specified, let alone having any probability estimates attached to such predictions. Yet, we are told that we must take action immediately to prevent the occurrence of this phenomenon.

Ordinarily scientific findings are presented with a confidence level. Thus, we would expect to find a statement such as this: “By 2110, Ocean levels will rise from current height by an average of 2 feet, 6 inches with 95% confidence that that rise will be within 6 inches of the mean.”

No such predictions and associated probability statements are available, so we can have no expectation of the accuracy or likelihood that this range will occur.

The Cause

This is among the most difficult of the methodological assumptions regarding global warming. Again, assuming that the temperature trending posited by climatologists is correct, we come to the most challenging task – that of determining the correct explanation for this trend.

While the primary (and clearly conflated with political considerations) explanation, an increased presence of Carbon Dioxide is offered as the direct cause of temperature rise, with this increase in level posited to be linked with man-made pollution. Efforts to offer alternative explanations have been subject to enormous political pressure, directed at diverting attention from these alternatives.

The party line is that there is “consensus” among scientists, and thus, this single explanation represents “settled” science. Consequently, investigators seeking funding to explore theory which question the validity of this explanation, receive little consideration. Yet, many competing theories have been advanced, some of which are listed below:

· Temperature change is cyclical, tied directly to cyclic heating and cooling of the Sun. Significant empirical data exists to correlate these changes with historic changes in long term temperature history.

· Cosmic ray activity is also cyclic in its behavior, again well documented and correlated with temperature.

· A recent (within the last 50 years) increase in CO₂ can be linked to deforestation caused both from logging activity, and a number of large wildfires. The result of this reduction of total trees on the surface of the planet naturally increases the CO₂ percentage in the atmosphere.

· Cow flatulence, while not the primary cause of for CO₂ presence is a contributing factor.

· An increase in the world’s population during the 20^th century certainly adds to increasing CO₂ levels in the atmosphere, directly attributable to the exhalation of CO₂ by this enlarged population

Note that none of these explanations eliminates any of the others. Rather they point to a far more complex set of interactions, ruled out by the simplistic unitary explanation of man-made pollution.

“It’s Our Fault.”

In what has to be one of the largest scams ever foisted on the American public, we have been told that:

· global temperatures are rising, which at some unknown time in the future will severely impact on the quality of life of the planet’s human inhabitants.

· Since this temperature rise is due to the increase in CO₂, this increase is directly attributable to man-made pollution.

· With the United States being the leader in industrialization and economic activity, individuals and businesses are, if not the greatest, certainly a significant contributor to man-made pollution.

· Therefore, to save the planet from the effects of global warming, Americans, whether individuals or businesses, must substantially change their behavior. The only way this can be done is at great cost, and consequent reduction in our standard of living.

That there is substantial public willingness to accept such a prescription is puzzling. The probability that all described above is entirely correct is probably in the same range as the chances of winning one of the major state or national lotteries. Those who invest major components of their assets tend to be those who can least afford such investments, and who are tempted by the rewards, rather than giving reasoned consideration to the chances of achieving them.

Lottery participants, if nothing else, know the potential award that could await them. In this instance, participation in this prescription provides no tangible reward, is uncertain as to whether any results will be achieved, and is certain only of the costs.

Interested in getting online tutoring?

If you are interested in getting help with troublesome school subjects, I look forward to being of assistance to you.

To get my information, simply go here for my profile, (Sherwin S - California) which tells you the subjects for which I provide tutoring. You can message me directly from this profile, and I'll respond within 24 hours. My reply will give you an opportunity to see my qualifications to assist you, and the costs of my services.

Tutoring is done exclusively with software which lets us carry on direct phone conversations, and lets you visually interact with resources I assemble for your private use. As you will see when you investigate my background that I am very well qualified to meet your needs.

FCS Inches toward Readiness

It's been a long time coming, but this is the first indication that our military will, within some reasonable time be able to to stand a chance in of prevailing in urban warfare.

That this system has been so long delayed in deployment goes a long way toward explaining why we have been so ineffective in Iraq. Had we had all the capabilities this technology provides, we could have effectively ended the insurgency with far fewer casualties, and at a lower cost than we have suffered.

Even without this new way of waging war, had DOD even fully used the most modern equipment available (improved personal body armor, fully armored vehicles are examples) our casualties would have been greatly reduced.

The recent scandal regarding the Army's unwillingness to use the Trophy RPG killer is an example of how Rumsfeld and the Pentagon have been so derelict in their responsibilities to give the best protection, or show the slightest concern for the courageous men and women fighting a war without purpose.

Police Officer Online - Army Robots - LiveHouse.com.au Aussie blogs hosting Australian:

A Desperation Move

VOA News - Bush Cautions Against Cutting Funds for Iraq Troops

This is a Bush desperate move to prevent Congress from taking control over his Iraq war policy. That he makes this statement is proof that he has finally come to recognize that what he regards as his personal imperial presidency can be controlled by others.

The big question is, will Congress have the guts to implement those controls?

Rudy Giuliani's Vulnerabilities - February 12, 2007

Rudy Giuliani's Vulnerabilities - February 12, 2007

ArchiText, A "Back to the Future" Analysis Tool

Introduction

Back in the days when I was a CEO of a Macintosh software publishing company, I designed a powerful text analysis product for the Macintosh platform. When the company closed in 1990, the program disappeared from public view, but to this day, has features that I have found in no other free or low-priced program. For that reason, I am looking for an open source programmer, interested in updating the design elements into a new program, usable on all platforms, and incorporating more modern elements, not available at that time.

The following presents a good overview of the design components all of which the new program should contain.

Import and Split – Creating Nodes

The first step in using ArchiText is to import the corpus of one or more documents into the program. In the example shown below the text of the 9/11 Commission Report is going to be subjected to analysis.

In general, if the document is of any significant length you'll want to split it into categories or sections which represent some logical division of the whole. After creating a new ArchiText file, select the file you're going to use.

You can elect to import the entire file, or to split the file into elements, referred to as “Nodes.” If you choose the former, you will have just one node, having the document name.

If you decide to split into sections, you can use any symbolic character (or combination of symbolic characters) as the target string by which sections are split, as shown above.

In this example, we have split the entire document into chapters, as illustrated in the Node Directory shown below. Double clicking on any of the Nodes will open a window in which the text of the node appears.

Node Selection

Regardless of the analysis you are going to perform, you can select all nodes, an ordered set of nodes, or a discontinuous combination of nodes. Preferences allow you to order nodes alphabetically or by time modified.

Keyword Lists

Typically this is the first analysis you are going to do. Ordinarily, you will have done a lot of tag preparation in the original file, which are referenced to as we go through the analyses, but the specific methodology will be beyond the scope of this introduction to ArchiText.

In the selection above, our interest was in identifying the key terrorist players, so the keyword search was restricted to those nodes where they were discussed.

After selecting the nodes whose words are to be listed, the keyword dialog sets up the parameters for the listing.

Most of these choices are self-explanatory, but the “stop word list” requires some discussion. ArchiText comes pre-loaded with a modifiable list of words – articles, prepositions and auxiliary verbs, which ordinarily are irrelevant to content. Thus, when this item is checked, these words are eliminated from the frequency listings. However, there are times when these words have usefulness for a given analysis, and they can then be included by unchecking this box.

In this partial view of the resulting frequency list, each person has been prefixed by “p-“ which facilitates grouping all of the those named fitting into the category “Person.” For those occurring with high frequency, we will proceed to extract all information regarding them, and combine that information into a single new node only focused on each of them.

Extract and Combine to make new nodes

In our first search, two of the terrorists have been selected. Selecting the “S” tab will automatically initiate the search dialog. Remember that the nodes have been preselected when the keyword list was constructed.

After pressing “Start Search” button, you will see the following results in the Directory.

Notice that the number of occurrences of the names of the two terrorists, within each node, are highlighted. The next step is to extract just this information, and combine it into a new node. To do this, select “Combine Nodes” from the “Analysis” menu.

In the example shown below, we have searched for George Bush, and are extracting all occurrences of his name throughout the nodes.

Select “Embed Node Name” if you want the source nodes named in the new node. After completion, a new node containing only those instances in which Bush is named in a paragraph. The result of this combination looks like this:

This illustration is, of course, only a small potion of the nodes in which the Bush Name occurs. If you wish, you can “drill down” further, building a keyword list for this node alone, and searching for other combinations related to Bush, as they occur within Paragraphs or sentences in which his name occurs. If desired, you could build extracted nodes for any combinations of Bush and other words included in your search.

Identify Relationships – Node Maps

In a 500 page document there are obviously a huge number of relationships between people, events, locations, and other categories. Node Maps facilitate your finding and manipulating these relationships in an infinite number of ways.

New maps are built in the same way as are new nodes -- by using the create button for maps in the directory dialog. You will note that there are number of nodes which are not on the map, but which are available through selection and pressing the "Add to Map" button. When nodes are deleted from the map, they appear in the left column which is the "On-Call" list. Another way that nodes can be added from the On-Call list is through a search which selects some of the nodes in this list.

One way of visualizing the nodes found in a search is to change the size of the nodes selected by that search. This option is available by selecting, "Change Node Size," in the Map menu found on the main tool bar.

A far more powerful option is available. Using one all of the eight linking tools which are available a "Parent Node" can be connected or linked to each of the nodes to which a relationship exists. One example of this linking is shown in the map below. In this case, Terrorist 001 (Osama bin Laden) is linked to each of the chapters in which his name appears.

As you see below every node which is linked to another is illustrated in the nodes window. Double clicking on any node name opens the note window, and depending on the preference settings, will either open the source node and destination node, or simultaneously open the destination node while closing the source node.

Implications for data mining

The methodology employed here facilitates the discovery of all kinds of relationships between people, events, locations, and in fact anywhere or phrase to any other. Typically as relationships are discovered new sub nodes will be created so that those relationships can be examined and further linked to other relationships.

It is not necessary to do this specialized tagging which will be explained in the following tutorial directed at methods of text analysis. This simply makes it easier to define categories of items making their location and identification easier within ArchiText and providing a basis for quantitative analyses which can flow from these categorical classifications.

Some limitations

While the design of this program offers features which this author has found in no other program, because it was designed in 1988, there are some limitations and deficiencies which demand starting from the beginning and rebuilding the program shell. Listed below are some of the current problems which must be resolved for the program to reach its potential power for its users:

· By far the most serious deficiency in this program is the fact that it will only operate on older Macintosh computers still installed with OS 9x or below. The search and linking functions are available on no other program, except those enterprise-level highly expensive data mining systems. Thus the program needs to be updated such that is usable on any platform.

· As currently constituted the program only can import text in ASCII format, and lacks the capability to open Internet files or read from them.

· There are number of deficiencies in the search algorithm, most particularly in the program's inability to process numerical searches. Thus, a search for a number greater than, equal to, or less than another quantity can not be accomplished currently.

· As displayed above, they the mapping capabilities of the program are very limited and a number of modifications should be made so that more effective pictographic displays are readily available. An example of one such possibility is shown below.